The boom in investments in luxury hotels in Rome may not be supported by a corresponding increase in high-end demand. This is the fear that emerged from a recent analysis by the Rome-based consultancy Thrends. While the study points out that forecasts for 2023 are very good, in all likelihood the growth rate of the city’s luxury rooms will be higher than the growth in arrivals.
Even taking the most generous estimate (arrivals at +25% in 2023 and +5.5% on average in the following period), from 2025 to 2026 the occupancy rate in luxury hotels could in fact grind to a halt at around 59% - 60%, i.e. almost 20% lower than the pre-Covid 77%.
By 2026 some 1,800 new luxury rooms are expected in Rome, excluding rebranded rooms that were already operational in 2022, the total going from 4,490 to around 6,500 in three years. But despite the upturn in high-end room nights, as they were only 1.73 million in 2022, compared to 2.42 million in 2019 the expected significant increase in supply could mean unprecedented levels of competition in the Eternal City.
The big hotel chains are playing a leading role, so much so that no fewer than 16 of the 19 new entries in the pipeline over the next three years will be global brands. The group with most hotels in its portfolio right now is Marriott International with The Pantheon Iconic Rome, The St. Regis, The Westin Excelsior, Elizabeth Unique and W Rome. And, with the Bulgari Hotel and the Edition Rome due to open this year, they will have a total of seven properties in Rome.
Massimiliano Sarti
Journalist
