A war that is turning into yet another test for international tourism, challenging the resilience of a global industry that has had to deal all too often with conflict. Pages of history we would not have wanted to tell - and would not want to tell again – but which are being thrust back into the spotlight. And once again, it is deeply saddening to think that we might become accustomed to it all.
Yet, less than two weeks after the start of the war in Iran, which initially paralyzed air traffic that had made the Middle East one of the world's key transport hubs, travellers are still planning their travels. Perhaps reconsidering their original itineraries, leading to a shift in the classic international tourist flow trends. This is highlighted by a study by the tourism consultancy firm Mabrian, which notes a significant deterioration in the perception of safety in several Middle Eastern destinations, along with the first signs of a change in demand.
The analysis, based on data relating to traveller sentiment and demand behaviour in the main outbound markets (the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy), shows a decline in confidence in several Gulf destinations Something that could open up new opportunities for other tourism markets. According to Mabrian there are already early signs that some of the demand usually directed towards the Middle East could be redirected towards European nations which are perceived as safer and more established. Countries such as Spain, Italy or Greece, although of course at this stage it is premature to assume a structural change in global demand.
For now the data mainly reflect shifts in perceptions and travel intentions but, if the conflict were to continue, it could mean more noticeable changes in bookings.
Mariella Cattaneo
Journalist
