The international situation is a delicate one and tourism is struggling to interpret how travellers are going to react.
Authoritative sources warn against the risk of focusing solely on nearby destinations because, they say, the fact that Italians are staying in Italy, Germans in Germany and so on is more than just a possibility. It is a trend that would trigger inevitable chain reactions, from traffic congestion to rising prices and an inevitable decline in quality. But it would also mean a loss of revenue from all those foreign markets that are the lifeblood of Italian tourism.
Looking further afield there are dynamics emerging at a European level that need to be kept under close check. For example tourism in the eastern Mediterranean is reacting unevenly to the current regional crisis. Greece remains widely perceived as a safe European destination and could even benefit from a reoriented demand for travel. Turkey is showing resilience, but faces caution due to its proximity to theatres of war and flight disruptions. The situation is different for Cyprus, the area closest to the conflict, which is exposed to the highest tourism risk due to uncertainty over bookings.
What seems clear is that many travellers will continue to travel, but they will choose places they consider safer and easier to reach. This creates “winners and losers” within the eastern Mediterranean itself. Destinations that are geographically close to the crisis but politically stable could benefit from travel demand, while destinations that appear too close to the front line or receive stricter government warnings are more likely to experience a slowdown in bookings.
In this context Italy would seem to be called upon to play a leading role, but it is still too early to understand if and how inbound tourism flows will evolve. Meanwhile, the Easter holidays are just around the corner.
Isabella Cattoni
Journalist
